We have not written a post recently about beautynomics, primarily because who wants to write about all that doom and gloom, but according to financial-istas (hot off the presses), it looks like Allergan --makers of Lumilash, Botox, Juvederm, Botox, and breast implants -- could have a good return on your investment. So you may want to add this to your stock portfolio investments, as well as your beauty portfolio.
According to Bernstein Research,
- The most important development presented yesterday was the unveiling of the Lumilash program. Lumilash makes eyelashes longer, darker and fuller and has minimal side-effects (it did not, as we feared, cause a change in eye color). We expect strong uptake and peak sales approaching $500M. (Girl-Woman will be one of the first bloggers to be testing and reviewing Lumilash.)
- The other key development was the announcement AGN is pushing forward the Juvederm with Lidocaine program where it now expects approval by YE09. This is a next generation dermal filler that could help AGN break the tie with MRX's Restylane – a largely equivalent product. Between Lumilash, Juvederm w/ Lidocaine and the Clinique products, Allergan is building a lead over other aesthetic companies, notably MRX -- Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. It is difficult to see aesthetic physicians being unhappy with AGN given the assortment of new products. (See Girl-Woman's comparison of Restylane and Juvederm). Additionally, according to my derm's office, there is a new kid on the block -- Radiesse. Radiesse is one of the longest-lasting dermal fillers available. Once it is injected, it actually stimulates the production of collagen. Girl-Woman will test Radiesse in the future and compare it to Juvederm and Restylane.
- There is also solid mid term progress which may come to fruition around 2010. The FDA may consider reducing the number of cycles required in the Botox-OAB clinical trials. There were also no delays in follow on Lap-Band programs in adolescence and lower BMI patients.
Although Botox's reputation was in question when Italian scientists discovered that Botox goes to the brain and when the Food and Drug Administration linked the product to side effects that caused deaths in some children being treated for cerebral palsy, many have postulated that the large dose used to decrease the spasticity in the children was the cause for the deaths.
On the flip side, doctors are advising “There is no need for alarm because even though Botox is transported along the nerve fiber as far as the brainstem, it is biologically metabolized and broken down along the way and simply has no other place it can act other than where it got absorbed, at the nerve terminal."
The breast implant market is also dominated by Allergan, and some analysts believe that although the fears of a recession will slow the growth of the implant market, sales will continue to blossom.
Although this could be a good stock for your portfolio -- investment or beauty --if financial sacrifices have to be made, do you think luxury consumers will forgo Jimmy Choo shoes so that they can continue their $500 to a $1,000 Botox and Juvederm habit? How about the $7,000 price tag associated with breast implants?
Source: Bernstein Research, Alan Gal
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